UFC Vegas 116’s best betting props, parlays and picks | Sterling vs. Zalal

UFC Vegas 116 is live this weekend (Sat., April 25, 2026) inside the familiar META APEX and streaming on the increasingly familiar Paramount+. This our first trip back to the APEX since April 4.Our main event on Saturday is Aljamain Sterling vs. Youssef Zalal in the Featherweight division. Zalal, who is riding a long win streak, could put himself among the contenders with an impressive win over the former 135-pound champion here.AdvertisementOur co-main event is Norma Dumont vs. Joselyne Edwards in the women’s Bantamweight division. Both these ladies are on good win streaks, too, and they are projected to have a fun brawl. Rounding out the main card is Rafa Garcia vs. Alexander Hernandez, Davey Grant vs. Adrian Luna Martinetti, Montel Jackson vs. Raoni Barcelos and Marcus Buchecha vs. Ryan Spann.The featured “Prelim” is Rodolfo Vieira vs. Eric McConico. This portion of the card also has Jafel Filho vs. Cody Durden and Mayra Bueno Silva vs. Michelle Montague.As always, there’s lots to bet on this card and we’ve got odds for all the fights below:UFC Vegas 116 Main Card Money Line OddsAljamain Sterling (+120) vs. Youssef Zalal (-142)Sterling’s last fight was his bizarre contest with Brian Ortega back in Aug. 2025 (details here). Ortega looked like death warmed up on the scales for that fight and that carried over to the bout itself. The fight, which was forced to be at 155 pounds, saw Sterling essentially fighting a training dummy. He won with a lopsided unanimous decision. That was Sterling’s first fight since he lost to Movsar Evloev by decision. Sterling has competed just three times since he lost the title to Sean O’Malley in 2023. This isn’t due to injury, though. It’s because of his much-publicized fractious relationship with UFC brass.AdvertisementZalal, meanwhile, has charged up the 145-pound rankings since he re-signed with the company in 2024. He’s won five straight since March 2023, scoring finishes in all but one fight. Last time out, he arm-barred Josh Emmett in around 90 seconds (re-live that here). Before that, he dominated Calvin Kattar for a decision in a fight where it looked like Zalal was playing with his food a little too much. This run has Zalal on an eight-fight win streak (10 if you count some boxing and kickboxing side quests he had along the way). He was cut from UFC before that run started after he went 0-3-1. During that time, he lost a decision to Ilia Topuria. He and Emmett are the only men to go the distance with Topuria.This is a hard fight to pick. It’s hard to know where Sterling is at when we don’t see him that often and considering the weirdness around his last fight. We’ve only seen him three times at Featherweight and two of those opponents didn’t really show up (that’s including his fight versus the anemic Kattar).I’m sure that Zalal is going to provide more resistance than Ortega and Kattar did. The big question is whether his game is suited to defeat Sterling. Both these guys love a back take and love to control and tire their opponents. Zalal is more immediately interested in submissions, though.Sterling is a great wrestler, but can he out-wrestle guys at Featherweight, where he’s almost always going to be the smaller guy? He couldn’t do it against Evloev. Zalal is not Evloev, but he does have a big size advantage working in his favor.AdvertisementZalal is also the better striker. On paper their stats are very similar. Sterling’s significant strike accuracy is 52 percent and Zalal’s is 50 percent. If we were just looking at strikes when standing, I suspect Zalal’s number would be much higher than Sterling’s, though. They both have good striking defense, too. Sterling defends 59 percent of significant strikes thrown his way. Zalal defends 66 percent.If this is a kickboxing match, then I think Zalal wins it quite comfortably. It might go that way. I can see Sterling and Zalal both thinking they have the advantage on the feet and thus wanting to press their luck there.The most exciting way this fight could go is if both men throw themselves into grappling exchanges and look for submissions. I favor Zalal in that scenario, too, since he has amazing flexibility, body awareness and quickness in those grappling transitions. His size would also be a big help there, too.Since I like Zalal in both the scenarios I see happening, I’ve got to go with him. That being said, I still think there’s a chance Sterling is able to pull this one out.AdvertisementBest bet: Youssef Zalal moneyline (-142)Norma Dumont (-245) vs. Joselyne Edwards (+200)Dumont has won her last six fights. However, because of her inactivity, it’s hard to say she’s got much momentum. Her last fight back in Nov. 2025 was a split decision win over Ketlen Vieira. Her prior fight to that was in Sept. 2024 in The Sphere. That’s where she literally rearranged Irene Aldana’s face. Before that, she took a decision over the ghost of Germaine de Randamie.Edwards is on a four-fight win streak, but her four fights have all been over the last two years. And they have all been finishes, too. Last year she submitted Nora Cornolle (see it here), after crushing her shoulder with a nasty body lock takedown. And before that, she obliterated Priscila Cachoeria (see it here). Edwards has made weight in her last three fights, something she’s only managed one other time in her UFC career.AdvertisementThis is a great fight and I’m not mad at it being our co-main event. These two could bite down on the mouthpiece and have a very exciting brawl this weekend.Edwards has looked very dynamic during her run and I think she has a great shot at out-landing and possibly hurting Dumont. Dumont has taken out the bigger names lately, but she was sensational in that Aldana fight, only. She could have easily lost the decision against Vieira.Edwards has a slight reach and height advantage on Dumont. Her straight punches have looked very good lately, though. Despite being smaller, Dumont will have the strength advantage. She’s a lot thicker than Edwards and that should help her in the clinch and against the fence.I just have a feeling we’re seeing a better Edwards than we’re used to at the moment, though. Her making weight might suggest that she’s taking fighting more seriously than ever and that might be why we’re seeing her perform better than we expect.AdvertisementIf she makes weight this week, I think she’s a very live dog. I’m taking her with the points, though, since I’d like a little insurance. I don’t think Dumont knocks her out, so I think we’re either seeing an Edwards stoppage or a close decision. Perfect recipe, for me, for a +3.5 play.Best bet: Joselyne Edwards +3.5 (-160)Rafa Garcia (+110) vs. Alexander Hernandez (-130)Garcia showed a lot of heart to get a win over Jared Gordon in Sept. 2024, finishing his fellow veteran with elbows on the ground (see it here). Before that he took a decision over Vinc Pichel. The 31 year-old is now 6-4 in the Octagon.AdvertisementHernandez’s last fight fell through, famously, due to some betting irregularities. The betting activity suggested that Hernandez might have been compromised going into that fight with Michael Johnson. That incident mars what was a great run for Hernandez. He is still on a four-fight win streak, though, with finishes over Diego Ferreira and Chase Hooper.I’m willing to throw out the weirdness over Hernandez’s last fight booking. When I do that, I can just focus on this really impressive run he’s been on. During the run both his striking and grappling have looked better than ever and he’s been really smart about using those different skills in the correct situations. He’s been able to out-box his grapple-heavy opponents and then ground his striking-heavy opponents.Garcia is well-rounded, too, but he’s more a wrestler than a striker. I think Hernandez — who has size over Garcia — will be able to win the exchanges on the feet and will be able to defend against Garcia’s attempts to take him down.Best bet: Alexander Hernandez moneyline (-130)Davey Grant (-142) vs. Adrian Luna Martinetti (+120)Grant was blown up by a Charles Jourdain flying knee in his last fight (see it here). That ruined a nice little run for the Englishman. He’d beaten Da’Mon Blackshear and Ramon Tavares by decision and looked a lot more spry than you’d expect from a 40-year-old.AdvertisementMartinetti is debuting here, after an impressive win on Contender Series. On the feeder show he threw down with Mark Vologdin (who we saw last weekend). He won the fight, which UFC’s YouTube channel called THE GREATEST FIGHT EVER, by decision. Martinetti is 17-1 now, but he’s only fought on the South American scene.I think this is a really close fight. Martinetti indulged Vologdin in having a fire fight with him, but he was also looking for takedowns here and there. I don’t think he’s going to stand and bang with everyone he faces in UFC.Grant is also very versatile and will look to mix striking and wrestling when it makes most sense. This fight is tough, because it asks whether Grant’s experience and late career surge is enough to take out the neophyte Martinetti or whether Grant’s age has caught up with him.Martinetti is not one of these killers who has come off Contender Series lately, so I don’t think Grant is in danger of getting smoked like poor Dennis Buzukja did last week. But, I do think there is a chance Martinetti is able to land some good shots and then have space to breathe (unlike he did with Vologdin) before going to his wrestling.AdvertisementI’m going to go for the over here, since I’m too chicken to pick a winner. I just don’t know how much stock to put in Grant getting destroyed by Jourdain — since Jourdain might be a title contender in this division.Best bet: Over 2.5 rounds (-166)Responsible BettingBetting on sports involves risk, so please only wager amounts you can afford to lose. If you or someone you know if struggling with gambling help can be found with the organizations listed below:USA: National Problem Gambling Helpline — Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER to receive support and learn about available services.UK: GamCare – Call 0808 8020 133 to speak to an advisor about gambling (or visit gamecare.org.uk for live chat and forum options).Canada: Visit responsiblegambling.org for resources on helplines in Canada’s various provinces and territories.Australia/New Zealand: National Gambling Helpline — Call (800) 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au.Montel Jackson (-180) vs. Raoni Barcelos (+150)Jackson had a chance, recently, to become a name at Bantamweight. But, he laid an egg. He rode his six-fight win streak into a fight with Deiveson Figueiredo, but then lost to the former UFC champ by split decision. I think the split decision was kinder to Jackson than he deserved.AdvertisementBarcelos, on the other hand, is on a great run at the moment. He’s won four in a row and he blew up on our radars after handing Payton Talbott a decision loss in Jan. 2025 (as a +710 underdog). After that he took decisions over Cody Garbrandt and Ricky Simon.I like Barcelos in this fight. Jackson was tentative in the Figueiredo fight and just wouldn’t pull the trigger. He spent a lot of his time just standing straight up and starring at the former champ. Barcelos is not afraid to pull the trigger. He is always looking to make something happen and that is what took Talbott off his game and has lead to Barcelos racking up these impressive wins lately.I can see Barcelos getting his head on Jackson’s chest and forcing him to have a dirty, ugly fight against the cage. Jackson won’t like that and I don’t think he has the physicality or the will to force a guy like Barcelos to back off of him.Jackson has a ton of size on Barcelos. But, he had that on Figureido, too. And Barcelos has had success as the smaller man, too.AdvertisementBest bet: Raoni Barcelos moneyline (+150)Marcus Buchecha (-155) vs. Ryan Spann (+130)The Buchecha experiment has not gone well in UFC. In his debut, he was picked apart by Martin Buday for a decision loss. After that he fought to a very forgettable draw with Kennedy Nzechukwu. He would have lost that if not for the point deduction Nzechukwu received for an eye poke.Spann moved up to Heavyweight last year. In his first bout he was TKO’d by Waldo Cortes-Acosta. No shame in that given Waldo’s 2025 run. Spann rebounded by beating Lukasz Brzeski with his trademark guillotine.I like Spann here.Buchecha got his takedowns in round one against Nzechukwu, but couldn’t do anything with them. And Spann is a better grappler than Nzechukwu. Buchecha was then tired in the second round. That’s an improvement on him being tired in the first round, which we saw in his debut. I think Spann’s speed and athleticism is going to make Buchecha struggle for his early takedowns and the cardio gap will be significant after that.AdvertisementA tired Buchecha really lurches into his takedowns. If he does that, his neck is going to be out there for that ‘Spann-atine’. I know, the idea of Buchecha being submitted in the Octagon seems strange. But we’ve seen submission aces come into the UFC and get finished on the ground before (see Rodolfo Vieira, who fights later on this card).Buchecha’s lack of striking is also a big factor in this fight. He has offered zero offense on the feet in his first two fights. His lack of striking means his takedowns are totally naked and thus easier to avoid. In this fight, it’s another reason why Spann might be able to stay on his feet.I don’t think this will be a fun one, but I think there’s a chance this could be the last act in the Buchecha-UFC era.Best bet: Ryan Spann moneyline (+130)UFC Vegas 116 ‘Prelims’ Under Card OddsJackson McVey (-205) vs. Sedriques Dumas (+170)Dumas was supposed to be McVey’s debut opponent in UFC. But, Dumas’ ankle monitor scuppered that deal. McVey would end up debuting opposite Brunno Ferreira one month later and was quickly submitted. McVey was then submitted by Zach Reese back in Nov. 2025 (see that here).AdvertisementDumas fought Reese after his canceled fight with McVey. That ended with a nut shot from hell, which rendered Dumas unable to compete and possibly reproduce. After that, he lost to Donte Johnson by guillotine (see it here).Dumas is the underdog — what’s up with that?I know he’s an odd duck and all and plenty of folks want to see him lose due to his off-field problems. But McVey hasn’t shown us anything in the Octagon yet, albeit against opponents better than Dumas.McVey is yet to stop a takedown in UFC — he’s 0-4 in attempts to do so. I think Dumas probably gets him down and then tests McVey’s submission defense (which has failed thus far in his UFC outings).AdvertisementDumas is not good on the feet, so there’s a chance McVey finds success there. In the Reese fight, McVey favored a Muay Thai clinch approach. Being that close to Dumas puts him at risk of being wrestled down to the ground, though.I’ll take Dumas here, since we’re still waiting to see what McVey actually