Will Lebanon’s ceasefire really hold?

Donald Trump says he has done it again. He has managed to “solve” his 10th war, by his own count, this time between Israel and Lebanon. No matter that he first started an 11th conflict that effectively triggered it. The ceasefire he announced on Truth Social came into effect just a few minutes after his announcement on Thursday night. It is expected to be followed by historic talks between Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Lebanon’s president Joseph Aoun. But the shaky pause in fighting has apparently already been violated by Israel, according to the Lebanese army. A boy holds an Iranian flag as he returns back to the southern Lebanese town of Marwanieh on April 17, 2026 (AFP/Getty)And it was supposed to already be in place, as part of a wider truce brokered by Pakistan between the US, Israel and Iran (Trump’s close ally Netanyahu chose to refute that). It is set to hold for 10 days, enough time to bring the temperature down to allow talks for the regionally devastating conflict between the US, Israel and Iran.But will it?The same fundamental, almost existential, differences continue.It was brokered not between Israel and the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah, that Israel is fighting and wants disarmed and destroyed, but with the Lebanese government. The comparatively new Lebanese technocratic government does contain Hezbollah political figures. But it has even less power than before this round of fighting to completely disarm what is thought to be the most powerful and heavily armed non-state actor in the region, if not the world.A couple gestures from a car as they return to their home, after a 10-day ceasefire between Lebanon and Israel went into effect, in the southern suburbs of Beirut, Lebanon, April 17, 2026 (Reuters)Despite the ceasefire, Netanyahu has also maintained that Israeli troops will continue to occupy what he calls a “buffer zone” 10km into Lebanese sovereign territory. He claims that this is needed for the safety of Israeli communities in the north, bordering Lebanon, to be able to live there.But this means hundreds of thousands of Lebanese civilians will not be able to go home. The fear is this is actually a permanent plan to expand Israel’s borders and they never will be able to regain - again a sticking point that will have to be battled out at the negotiating table. As part of the deal, according to details shared by the State Department, Israel retains its "right to take all necessary measures in self-defence, at any time, against planned, imminent, or ongoing attacks". That sounds suspiciously like a get out clause to upend the ceasefire at will.A truce is badly needed for Lebanon, where over a million people have been forced from their homes under Israel’s devastating bombardment. It has killed over 2,000 people including children, medics and journalists. Swathes of the south of the country are rubble. There were celebrations in Beirut at midnight local time when it came into effect. In Israel, it will no doubt be met with less joy. A recent poll by the Hebrew University of Jerusalem signalled two thirds of the population oppose a ceasefire until the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah has been destroyed.Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu visits Israeli troops in occupied southern Lebanon (GPO/Kobi Gideon)And that might be further pressure on this deal. Netanyahu is facing re-election in a few months.The fear from regional sources I have spoken to, well before Israel and the US began bombing Iran, which triggered Hezbollah pounding Israel and the war in Lebanon erupting, was that the embattled leader might look to stir up conflict to win votes. In the words of one Israeli source a few months ago, the majority of the Israeli public love nothing more than feeling that Israel is “fighting shoulder to shoulder with the US”.With Iran talks just around the corner, badly needed to bring the world’s economy and frankly future back from the brink, everything is resting on this ceasefire holding.